Well there aren't any official statement from ZUN about wich of them are the true Kogasa. But I think they are both the true one, that she got the power to make a humanoidish version of herself, just like most other youkais, but still kept her old body, like the only other Tsukumogami in Touhou, Medicine Melancholy, who still has her body of an ventriloquist doll.
Well, Myon is just the ghost half of Youmu but everyone gives it its own name and character. Pretty sure the umbrella will get one as well. Doesn't matter which one is real.
And Suwako is really the hat; the girl was once upon a time just an unlucky villager whose body was taken as a "host." This'd be the real reason the native gods demanded human sacrifices.
I'd say that's a flashback. Kogasa is one of those youkai I can't remember the name of... items that stop being inanimate after their hundredth birthday. We're looking at what will be Kogasa in the future. From said future.
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